Actuarial Report Archives

HECM MMI Fund Remains Positive for Now

While the HECM portion of FHA’s portfolio remains positive its capital ratio has slightly slipped thanks to the program’s extreme sensitivity to home price appreciation and interest rates…

Podcast E647: Revision Improves HECM’s Economic Net Worth by $7B

Unable to use the embedded player? Listen here.

Revision Improves HECM’s Economic Net Worth by $7B

One industry observer noted a difference between HUD’s Annual Report to Congress and the actuarial review of the HECM in FHA’s insurance fund. Here’s how a $7 billion difference was found and why.

Why California is the future of the HECM Fund

<h2 class="p1">Without audience targeting are Google Ads Dead? Think again…</h2> Early this month Google announced new restrictions for targeting specific audiences. The restrictions apply to content related to housing, employment, credit, and those who are disproportionately affected by societal biases. The news of these restrictions created quite a stir among industry brokers and lenders who heavily rely upon targeted Google ad campaigns. All which may have you asking if these changes will kill future reverse mortgage advertising on the world’s most popular search engine. In just a moment we’ll hear from our online SEO expert Josh Johnson to find out. <a onclick="read_toggle(1958055628, 'Read More', 'Read Less'); return false;" class="read-link" id="readlink1958055628" style="readlink" href="#">Read More</a> <div class="read_div" id="read1958055628" style="display: none;"> Google’s restrictions are not necessarily novel nor unexpected. It was just over two years ago Facebook faced scrutiny from federal regulators for allowing those offering credit or housing finance to restrict ad audiences by race or religion among other questionable metrics that would violate HUD’s fair housing rules. An investigation by ProPublica broke this news in October 2016. It was nearly two years later in August 2018 that HUD filed a formal complaint against the social media giant for discriminatory advertising practices. Seven months after HUD’s complaint Facebook announced sweeping changes. Both Facebook and later Google, took a blunt approach much to the chagrin of lenders and service providers. What ad filters are going away? In its official release Google revealed, “credit products or services can no longer be targeted to audiences based on gender, age, parental status, marital status, or ZIP code.” Is this the end of Google ads for reverse mortgages? To answer that question I reached out to Josh Johnson who heads up Reverse Focus’ Online Dominance SEO program and Google marketing. Here’s his explanation. Here’s what makes Google unique from other platforms and why reverse mortgage Google ads will continue to reach the intended audience. To summarize, older homeowners are intentionally seeking out reverse mortgage information on Google which means, yes-your ads will be seen by your target audience, even though you can no longer target specific age groups. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-21372 alignnone" src="https://apirodev.com/reverse-mortgage-news/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004-300x169.jpeg" alt="" width="691" height="389" srcset="https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 691px) 100vw, 691px" /><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-21373" src="https://apirodev.com/reverse-mortgage-news/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001-1024x576.jpeg" alt="" width="681" height="383" srcset="https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 681px) 100vw, 681px" /> <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignright size-large wp-image-21374" src="https://apirodev.com/reverse-mortgage-news/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002-1024x576.jpeg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" srcset="https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /> <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignright size-large wp-image-21375" src="https://apirodev.com/reverse-mortgage-news/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003-1024x576.jpeg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" srcset="https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /> </div>

Why California will shape the future of the HECM in FHA’s Insurance Fund

A few things are undeniable and established truths; one being the valuation of FHA’s Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund is extremely sensitive to even the most modest changes in home price appreciation. Don’t blame the messenger. Blame the math. The mathematical assumptions where a mere 1 drop in home appreciation reduces FHA’s insurances fund’s capitalization ratio by 1.3%. Applying a hypothetical stress test FHA’s report to Congress reveals market conditions similar to 2007 would completely erase the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund’s positive six-percent capitalization ratio down to a negative .63 percent. Knowing this it’s easier to understand the agency’s reluctance to grant repeated requests from housing lobbyists to further reduce premiums. It’s clear that a higher capitalization ratio is needed to weather the storms of economic uncertainty.

Today much of that uncertainty is focused on the long-term impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the American economy- more specifically unemployment. After all, it’s employment that is the linchpin of the housing market. After all it’s difficult to make your mortgage payment without a full income. Though receiving less attention than the overall improvement of the fund’s improvement in valuation FHA’s report addresses three potential risks that could boost future claims: First is a reversal of home price appreciation (a fall in values) triggered by a flood of distressed properties coming on the market. FHA reports to have over 900,000 loans in serious delinquency- those are loans over 90 days delinquent. Second, are more unemployed borrowers than projected. These homeowners would place strain on the fund not being eligible for loss-mitigation having no income to resume making monthly payments. Third, too many borrowers opting to take a full twelve-months of mortgage forbearance under the CARES Act which terminate in a short period of time. The report states “A gradual unwinding of forbearance would be a preferred outcome, as it would be less likely to cause the market disruptions”.

Two other market risks should be noted. First, is the ‘California Factor’. FHA’s annual report notes that federally-insured reverse mortgages are much more geographically concentrated than their traditional FHA counterparts. California alone represents just over 35% of all endorsed HECM loans based on Maximum Claim Amounts. The other 25% of total MCA volume comes from Florida, Colorado, Arizona, and Washington State- this means five states account for sixty percent of HECM endorsements by MCA in 2020. “As a result, future HECM performance will most likely be more reliant on economic factors such as house price appreciation in these concentrated states, particularly in California where the share of HECM MCA is almost five times greater than Colorado, the state with the second-highest share at 7.38 percent.” To monitor the future financial health of the HECM portion of FHA’s insurance fund, look to future home value trends in these states, especially California.

Next week we will examine the 2020 Actuarial Review of the HECM portion of the MMI Fund, more specifically we will examine why despite rising home values and low interest rates potential causes of why the HECM’s valuation actually dropped significantly since October 2017 HECM changes. In the meantime, we leave you with the words of Seneca- “The whole future lies in uncertainty – live immediately”. Let’s find what can be accomplished today and approach it with vigor and tenacity.

FHA’s Report to Congress on the Financial Status of the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund [READ]

Actuarial Report California MMI Fund

HECM MMI Fund Remains Positive for Now

Podcast E647: Revision Improves HECM’s Economic Net Worth by $7B

Revision Improves HECM’s Economic Net Worth by $7B

Other Stories:

Why California is the future of the HECM Fund

Why California will shape the future of the HECM in FHA’s Insurance Fund

More Questions Than Answers

Sign up for our newsletters

About

Company

Connect

Follow Us

Subscribe to join our World