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   The Positive Realist

   June 7, 2024 at 6:55 pm

   Multiply total HECM endorsements for May 2024 by 12 and the product is less than 30,000. Yet May was THE second best month for HECM endorsements so far this fiscal year (i.e. in the last eight months). With just four months left, it seems unlikely that total HECM endorsements will be more than 28,000. Out of 21 consecutive fiscal years (including the current fiscal year), fiscal year 2024 may be the only one with less than 30,000 total HECM endorsements. While industry sales management would like a better theme for this fiscal year, it is what the final numbers will say it is.

   Look at the campaigns for H4P and you would think it was already nearing 2,000 endorsements but we will be lucky to reach 2,000 H4P endorsements for the entire fiscal year. Another example of how H4P may be sleeping but it is no giant of any industry.

   Fiscal year 2024 is shaping up as being — the worst fiscal year for HECM endorsements since fiscal 2003. Sad to say, there are NO major indicators that lead to the conclusion that fiscal 2025 will be all that much better. Will this fiscal year be the low watermark for total fiscal year HECM endorsements for the rest of this decade or will we see worse? Before this fiscal year, the fiscal year with the fewest HECM endorsements since fiscal 2003 was fiscal 2019 and the second worst fiscal year was last fiscal year (ended September 30, 2023). In fact out of the last seven fiscal years (including fiscal year 2024) five have had the five lowest fiscal years for HECM endorsements in two plus decades.

   We have known the source of the low HECM endorsement volume for over six years, yet what is being done about it? Until PLFs and the expected rate floor are substantially increased, expect low HECM fiscal year endorsement totals.

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