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The Most Vulnerable Housing Markets

Report reveals the most at-risk markets

It’s no secret that home values are a linchpin of reverse mortgage lending. Higher home values increase the likelihood that reverse mortgage applicants will qualify while falling home values typically result in more applications being deemed short-to-close and lower consumer interest.

In the first weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic, many began to suspect a housing crash was on the horizon. After all, the economy essentially came to a screeching halt with most office workers working remotely from home. That was the case until real estate professionals were deemed essential workers and the Federal Reserve repeatedly slashed interest rates triggering a historic runup in home prices. Mortgage professionals of all types breathed a sigh of relief and reaped the rewards of higher home values and record refinances.

Today a nationwide housing crash is highly-doubtful yet several markets around the nation are beginning to show weaknesses that could lead to a housing downturn.

Reverse mortgage professionals will want to see which housing metros they market in that may be at risk.

Real estate data aggregator and software provider ATTOM recently released its Special Housing Risk Report highlighting the most vulnerable housing markets. Their conclusions are drawn from fourth quarter 2023 foreclosure, affordability, and negative equity data.

The Big Picture

California, New Jersey, and Illinois have the most at-risk markets in the country. Not surprisingly these are the states that have seen some of the largest gains in home prices. These three states account for 34 of the 50 counties most at risk of a significant decline in home values.

Housing markets near the coastline traditionally have the biggest surges of home values in a booming market and the largest risk of decline. However, 14 California inland counties far from the coast are showing signs of strain.

“Fault lines running through the foundation of the U.S. housing market continue to appear in different parts of the country, with some areas remaining more or less vulnerable than others,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “As always, this is not a warning sign for homeowners to run out and sell, or rush to buy, in any specific market. The housing market remains strong throughout most of the country despite some recent small downturns. Rather, this report again spotlights areas that appear more or less exposed to a market fall, should that start to happen, based on key measures.”

Key Performance Indicators

Those key performance indicators (KPIs) include the number of potential foreclosures, the number of homes underwater with mortgage balances that exceed the home’s estimated value, a disproportionate ratio of the local median household income when compared to the area’s median-priced single-family home, and a higher than average unemployment rate.

ATTOM that 36 of the 50 most at-risk markets have five percent of traditional residential mortgages that were underwater (negative equity) in the fourth quarter of 2023. Nationwide, just over six percent of homeowners have a mortgage balance that exceeds their home’s value.

Nationally foreclosure rates remain relatively stable with just one in 1,503 homes in foreclosure. The highest concentration of foreclosures can be found in counties with a higher unemployment rate.

Vulnerable Markets

The highest unemployment rates can be found in these central California agricultural counties.

Tulare County, CA (10.2 percent)

Merced County, CA(8.5 percent)
Kings County, CA (8 percent
Kern County (Bakersfield), CA (7.8 percent
Fresno County, CA (7.6 percent)

These are the 14 California counties at risk of a housing market decline/reset:

Butte County (Chico)
Sacramento County
El Dorado County
Solano County
Fresno County
Kern County (Bakersfield
Kings County (outside Fresno)
Madera County (outside Fresno)
Merced County (outside Fresno)
San Joaquin County (Stockton)
Stanislas County (Modesto)
Tulare County (outside Fresno)
Riverside County
San Bernardino County

Additional Reading:

[ATTOM] California, New Jersey and Illinois Still Facing Higher Risk of Housing Market Decline

housing crash housing market

HECM loan application activity falls

EPISODE #814

HECM application activity falls

[FHA/HECMWORLD]

After a long delay the most recent FHA Single Family Production report was released earlier this month revealing November HECM application activity.

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HSom

The 2023 housing market forecast

This week we look at what reverse mortgage professionals may expect of home values in 2023

housing crash housing market

Are we surprised?

We shouldn’t be surprised at the state of today’s housing market. Not one bit. What we can do is glean a few valuable lessons along the way such as…

housing crash housing market

Fannie Mae economists downgrade their housing forecast.

Fannie Mae dark days ahead for housing market

[Housing Wire] It will get worse for the housing market – and mortgage industry – before it gets better. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales this week

housing crash housing market

10 cities where senior home equity is most at risk

Senior home equity is at risk as the housing market begins the big shift…

Home Equity housing crash housing crisis

Spring Fever Will Benefit Senior Homeowners

The continued surge in housing prices has confounded economists, housing experts, and investors alike…

housing crash housing market

Few worried about a housing bubble- just like last time

Unable to use the embedded player? Listen here.

EPISODE #694
CNN Business: No one seems worried about a housing bubble. Just like last time the bubble burst

Good news. Few economists, if any, believe that the housing market will crash. The bad news most experts believed the same in the months and years leading up to the 2008 housing market crash.

The Early Signs of a Housing Crisis?

<h2 class="p1">Without audience targeting are Google Ads Dead? Think again…</h2> Early this month Google announced new restrictions for targeting specific audiences. The restrictions apply to content related to housing, employment, credit, and those who are disproportionately affected by societal biases. The news of these restrictions created quite a stir among industry brokers and lenders who heavily rely upon targeted Google ad campaigns. All which may have you asking if these changes will kill future reverse mortgage advertising on the world’s most popular search engine. In just a moment we’ll hear from our online SEO expert Josh Johnson to find out. <a onclick="read_toggle(806382924, 'Read More', 'Read Less'); return false;" class="read-link" id="readlink806382924" style="readlink" href="#">Read More</a> <div class="read_div" id="read806382924" style="display: none;"> Google’s restrictions are not necessarily novel nor unexpected. It was just over two years ago Facebook faced scrutiny from federal regulators for allowing those offering credit or housing finance to restrict ad audiences by race or religion among other questionable metrics that would violate HUD’s fair housing rules. An investigation by ProPublica broke this news in October 2016. It was nearly two years later in August 2018 that HUD filed a formal complaint against the social media giant for discriminatory advertising practices. Seven months after HUD’s complaint Facebook announced sweeping changes. Both Facebook and later Google, took a blunt approach much to the chagrin of lenders and service providers. What ad filters are going away? In its official release Google revealed, “credit products or services can no longer be targeted to audiences based on gender, age, parental status, marital status, or ZIP code.” Is this the end of Google ads for reverse mortgages? To answer that question I reached out to Josh Johnson who heads up Reverse Focus’ Online Dominance SEO program and Google marketing. Here’s his explanation. Here’s what makes Google unique from other platforms and why reverse mortgage Google ads will continue to reach the intended audience. To summarize, older homeowners are intentionally seeking out reverse mortgage information on Google which means, yes-your ads will be seen by your target audience, even though you can no longer target specific age groups. <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-21372 alignnone" src="https://apirodev.com/reverse-mortgage-news/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004-300x169.jpeg" alt="" width="691" height="389" srcset="https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.004.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 691px) 100vw, 691px" /><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-21373" src="https://apirodev.com/reverse-mortgage-news/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001-1024x576.jpeg" alt="" width="681" height="383" srcset="https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.001.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 681px) 100vw, 681px" /> <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignright size-large wp-image-21374" src="https://apirodev.com/reverse-mortgage-news/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002-1024x576.jpeg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" srcset="https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.002.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /> <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignright size-large wp-image-21375" src="https://apirodev.com/reverse-mortgage-news/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003-1024x576.jpeg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" srcset="https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://www.hecmworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/In-post-pix.003.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /> </div>

Are we seeing the early signs of another mortgage crisis or housing bubble?

Perhaps you’ve noticed that housing prices are blowing up despite an uncertain economy and what appears to be a building second wave of COVID-19 infections. At this point, most of us are ready to accept some good news. However, there are some indicators that we are approaching a housing crisis while certainly, we have solid market indicators of improvement. As one Polish poet put it, “the truth usually is in the middle. Most often without a tombstone. Let’s dive in.

First, we will see a spike in evictions- not because landlords are booting out non-paying tenants, but because those property owners cannot pay the mortgage to the bank when they are no longer receiving rent payments. While this does not directly impact senior homeowners it will contribute toward increasing housing inventory which has a direct impact on housing prices. Next, let’s look at the state of the market comparing Black Knight’s July and August Mortgage Monitor reports.

In its July report Black Knight’s stats who show serious mortgage delinquencies- that’s those who are 90 days past due or longer- jumped 20 percent in July for a total of 1.8 million more delinquencies before the pandemic. However, the overall delinquency rate fell by nearly 9%.

Now, this is where our viewers serving some of our nation’s largest metros will want to pay attention. Here are the ten cities that had the largest increase in delinquencies in July. Florida holds three spots with Miami, Tampa, and Orlando. It’s not surprising to see New York and New Jersey on the list as two of the areas hardest-hit by COVID-19. Cities with the highest delinquencies will see more future foreclosures which naturally increases inventory and lowers prices. The markets with the largest delinquency increases are most likely those where state or local officials have enacted strict shut-down measures shuttering small businesses and spiking unemployment rates. However, keep in mind if we do see a reset in home values it historically has begun in larger metros and then trickles down to smaller communities.

Now on to some positive signs of improvement. The rate of serious delinquencies slowed from July’s 20 percent to only 5 percent growth in August. As the U.S. GDP jumped nearly 33% in the third quarter this year and unemployment rates continue to drop many hope that requests for forbearance plans continue to dwindle after their spike earlier this spring. Outside of historically-low interest rates, the continued lack of housing inventory is sustaining current housing prices. Mortgage delinquencies 100-113% higher than last year as millions found themselves unable to earn an income while sheltering in place, The good news is that many of these individuals are going back to work as evidenced by 41% of those were in a COVID-19 forbearance plan have resumed making their monthly payment.

While these are positive signs of a partial recovery uncertainty remains our biggest challenge. Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske explained, “At the current rate of improvement, delinquencies would remain above pre-pandemic levels until March 2022. What’s more, when the first wave of COVID-19-related forbearance plans reach their 12-month expiration period, we would still have a million excess delinquencies.”

In conclusion, what we have is a mixed bag. What could be a looming housing crisis, positive economic indicators, millions resuming their mortgage payments, and of course a red-hot housing market? Our best approach is a stoic one- don’t overindulge in dire predictions, watch key market indicators closely, and consider adjusting your marketing efforts outside larger metros should housing trends turn sour in urban markets.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

BLACK KNIGHT’S JULY 2020 MORTGAGE MONITOR [READ]
BLACK KNIGHT’S AUGUST 2020 MORTGAGE MONITOR [READ]

Housing Bubble housing crash housing crisis mortgage bubble

The Most Vulnerable Housing Markets

Report reveals the most at-risk markets

It’s no secret that home values are a linchpin of reverse mortgage lending. Higher home values increase the likelihood that reverse mortgage applicants will qualify while falling home values typically result in more applications being deemed short-to-close and lower consumer interest.

Today a nationwide housing crash is highly-doubtful yet several markets around the nation are beginning to show weaknesses that could lead to a housing downturn.

Reverse mortgage professionals will want to see which housing metros they market in that may be at risk.

Real estate data aggregator and software provider ATTOM recently released its Special Housing Risk Report highlighting the most vulnerable housing markets. Their conclusions are drawn from fourth quarter 2023 foreclosure, affordability, and negative equity data.

The Big Picture

California, New Jersey, and Illinois have the most at-risk markets in the country. Not surprisingly these are the states that have seen some of the largest gains in home prices. These three states account for 34 of the 50 counties most at risk of a significant decline in home values.

Key Performance Indicators

Vulnerable Markets

HECM loan application activity falls

EPISODE #814

HECM application activity falls

The 2023 housing market forecast

Are we surprised?

Fannie Mae economists downgrade their housing forecast.

10 cities where senior home equity is most at risk

Spring Fever Will Benefit Senior Homeowners

Few worried about a housing bubble- just like last time

EPISODE #694
CNN Business: No one seems worried about a housing bubble. Just like last time the bubble burst

Other Stories:

The Early Signs of a Housing Crisis?

Are we seeing the early signs of another mortgage crisis or housing bubble?

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Report reveals the most at-risk markets

It’s no secret that home values are a linchpin of reverse mortgage lending. Higher home values increase the likelihood that reverse mortgage applicants will qualify while falling home values typically result in more applications being deemed short-to-close and lower consumer interest.

Today a nationwide housing crash is highly-doubtful yet several markets around the nation are beginning to show weaknesses that could lead to a housing downturn.

Reverse mortgage professionals will want to see which housing metros they market in that may be at risk.

Real estate data aggregator and software provider ATTOM recently released its Special Housing Risk Report highlighting the most vulnerable housing markets. Their conclusions are drawn from fourth quarter 2023 foreclosure, affordability, and negative equity data.

The Big Picture

California, New Jersey, and Illinois have the most at-risk markets in the country. Not surprisingly these are the states that have seen some of the largest gains in home prices. These three states account for 34 of the 50 counties most at risk of a significant decline in home values.

Key Performance Indicators

Vulnerable Markets

EPISODE #814

HECM application activity falls

EPISODE #694 CNN Business: No one seems worried about a housing bubble. Just like last time the bubble burst

Other Stories:

Are we seeing the early signs of another mortgage crisis or housing bubble?

Sign up for our newsletters

About

Company

Connect

Follow Us

Subscribe to join our World

EPISODE #694
CNN Business: No one seems worried about a housing bubble. Just like last time the bubble burst