These reverse mortgage markets are seeing significant declines in median home listing prices

| Real Estate Insights by Snapforce |
Nationally U.S. home prices have remained stubbornly stuck at levels that exasperate housing affordability and defy the economic fundamentals of a healthy market. Last week we investigated this phenomenon but today we are going to look at specific metros that have seen significant price drops in the states that have the largest concentration of HECM endorsements. We will also look at those markets that have seen modest appreciation.

California, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, and Texas account for 55% of all HECM endorsements in the fiscal year 2022 according to the 2022 Independent Actuarial Review of MMI Economic Net Worth for Home Equity Conversion Mortgages. To track home price trends we will be using SnapForce CRM, a tool we reviewed in detail in February which tracks US home listing prices, inventory, and new construction.

Today, we will be focusing on median list prices and price reductions by county with the areas

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with darker-shaded pink having the largest declines and green representing price gains from June 2022 to May 2023. San Diego California median list prices are still 28% above pre-pandemic levels of May 2019 and prices have slipped steadily since last fall according to Redfin’s data set. However, the pace of price declines has slowed since this spring most likely due a drop off in inventory shown here from Realtor-com data. Inyo County has taken a beating with median list prices down over 15% from their peak. If you’re licensed in California Salinas in Monterey County looks attractive bucking the trend with prices up 27%.

Next, let’s move over to the Sunshine State. Florida’s panhandle is impressively resilient with a majority of counties posting significant gains in median list prices with the exception of Franklin County. Moving to the south peninsula Broward County’s Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro list prices are up 14% since last June and a whopping 65% from May 2019. Miami-Dade County nearly mirrors this trend. One force behind this price growth is the 17% drop in inventory since June 2022.

Pinal County Arizona has one bright spot, but not in a good way. Median list prices have fallen 9% in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metros since last June yet remain stubbornly high at 65% above May 2019 pre-pandemic prices. Maricopa County median price declines as reported by Redfin are more moderate which is not surprising considering the massive decline of inventory since last October.

Moving to the continental divide reverse mortgage originators may find more short-to-close challenges in Conejos and Las Animas counties where median list prices have fallen 27% in one year. Moving to more populous counties the Denver-Aurora metros in Elbert County have seen comparatively modest downward pressure on list prices.

And last, but not least, is the great state of Texas. Much press has been given to Austin home price declines so let’s begin there. Median list prices have fallen from five to nineteen percent since June 2022 with the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown metros in Caldwell County showing the biggest correction in home prices falling nearly 20% in the last 11 months, yet still 46% above May 2019 median list prices. If you’re looking for massive home appreciation then Mills County Texas is your spot. With a population just over 5,000 however, it’s unlikely you’ll find much traction with potential reverse mortgage borrowers.

Overall, the most populous metros with the largest surges in home values are experiencing more significant pricing corrections. If you would like to research which areas in your market have more stable home prices I’ve included a link to SnapForce CRM in the description of this video.

| Real Estate Insights by Snapforce |

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