Will forbearances create another housing bubble?

Mortgage forbearances are being extended. How will home values and borrowers be impacted once they end?

It’s compassionate and pragmatic. Mortgage forbearance allows borrowers to suspend or reduce their monthly payments, however, delinquent payments must be repaid. The good news is homeowners with a federally or GSE-backed mortgage (FHA, VA, USDA, Fannie & Freddie) are protected from a lender initiating foreclosure until December 31st of this year thanks to the CARES Act. FHA-insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgage borrowers are protected under this provision.

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However, there is a less-publicized provision of the Coronavirus Aid Relief & Economic Safety act; a provision that is certain to have a major impact on the housing market and home values.  That provision is the right for the aforementioned homeowners to apply for up to six months and if desired another extension for up to 360 days. No documentation of financial hardship is required to qualify. Basically, that means millions of American homeowners will not be making a payment for up to one year. In essence, our government has attempted to stem a tidal wave of foreclosures and slow damage to our fragile economy delaying the inevitable. The silver lining is home values should remain relatively stable during this temporary calm. That’s a win for reverse mortgage originators who can offer more borrowing power with high home values and low interest rates. Home sales slowed to a crawl in this spring as the first waves of COVID-19 hit our shores. Then the summer months brought record-breaking home sales volumes

as a flood of pent up demand hit the market.

But what happens after mortgage forbearances work their way through the system? Some housing analysts predict 1.9 million or 40% of those in forbearance will end up defaulting. That’s a sobering number but nowhere close to the 3.1 million foreclosure filings seen in the 2008 housing crisis which created a glut of housing inventory driving prices down. A correction in housing values is assured in a cyclical real market but it’s unlikely we’ll see home values plummet immediately. The hope is the air will be released slowly from the housing bubble we find ourselves in today. However, eventually, a toll will be extracted from the housing market for the unprecedented shutdown of our national economy.

Housing prices are marching to the beat of a different drum and seniors are part of the new rhythm which is further constraining housing inventory. “Seniors are scaling down at a far slower rate than in the previous, additional constraining supply. “We were predicting that baby boomers, like past generations at their age, would move into apartments, condos, or to their second homes en masse,” says Ed Pinto- Director of the American Enterprise Institute in a recent Fortune Magazine column. “That isn’t occurring. The main reason they aren’t moving is that their adult children move back in and work from the home they grew up in.”

Two things will mitigate and deflation in housing prices. Housing demand and employment. As more Americans regain employment they are more likely to voluntarily decline further mortgage forbearance and resume making payments. All things considered, a gradual deflation is preferable to a sudden bursting of a housing bubble.

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