This report was compiled from data courtesy of Reverse Market Insight.
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3 Comments
For four straight months (fiscal year to date), we have not seen one month’s total reach 5,000. Last summer we heard how things were turning around and looking much better. We have finished the first round of the TV ads for the Extreme Summit and where are we?
With barely over 19,000 endorsements for the first four months of this fiscal year in a fiscal year we all know will end with a final quarter at least 3% if not 25% worse than now, how is it that business is looking better? Even then the last quarter is usually bad anyway. If the total for this fiscal year is proportional (an overly optimistic view) to the first four months of this fiscal year we are still under 60,000 endorsements for this fiscal year. While that might be good when compared to fiscal 2014, it is still horrible for our industry. Yet how really bad will the final quarter of this fiscal year actually be?
Some may criticize saying that it is far too early to be asking that question but we are well into the second quarter of this fiscal year. If now is not the right time to be asking this kind of question knowing what we are facing 28 days from now, when is it?
Could such questions produce a pessimistic outlook that could become self fulfilling prophecy? Highly unlikely if the members of the Extreme Summit are as committed to the next phase of their TV ads as they were to the first. Or is NRMLA glossing over the disaster of the first round of the TV ad campaign when it labels the results as mixed.
The heart of the Extreme Summit has been removed from its campaign because of poorly crafted ads and the illogical selection of the media markets, wasting not only money, but also talent, and unrecoverable time. Generation’s contribution is gone and no one is stepping up to make it for them and even then out of the five others, who is putting up additional money for further failure. NRMLA needs to call it what it is, an abject failure no matter how badly that reflects on the idea and those who proposed it.
Will we see 53,000 endorsements for this fiscal year or something closer to 48,000? Will the Extreme Summit spur us to 300,000 endorsements for any fiscal year in this decade or even next? It is time for NRMLA and the members of the Extreme Summit to fess up. We ain’t on our way to 300,000 endorsements in fiscal 2018 and our chances of getting there are worse than the Seahawks chances of winning Super Bowl XLIX after Butler stepped forward to intercept Wilson’s throw with all but a few seconds to go in the game. Yeah, it is not great to say it but why was it brought up in the first place? Let us be realists, not always disappointed ultra optimists. Yeah, it feels bad saying that with one exception the last six fiscal years will end up being a downward trend when the six years before that were years of seeing endorsements going from 18,000 to almost 115,000.
Now with LESAs, first year disbursements limitations, proceeds more like that of a Saver, and financial assessment, how could today’s HECM be better for both borrowers or originators?
The numbers don’t lie. I’ve calculated as much as 4 loans per month per LO 7-8 years ago, compared to today’s approximately .25 loans per month per LO.
The leveraged, focused LO doing only Reverse can and does reach 3-4-5 Loans per month, but not as an industry average. Most LO’s are doing forwards PLUS a Reverse here and there. I refer to the dedicated, focused REVERSE LO as the serious ones.
If you are a serious one, you know the routine.
Mike,
Although later I question your current average number, what does your comment have to do with the January endorsement numbers? Now here is why I think your average loans per LO is really off.
Last month we had a little less than 5,000 endorsements. Using your 0.25 loans per LO equates to about 19,000 LOs. It is very unlikely that 19,000 different originators closed HECMs in the last 12 months. The number is probably much closer to 5,000 distinct originators.
On the other hand your point about the increase in LOs doing HECMs maybe wrong mathematically but on the other hand, your point is well taken.